Good morning. It’s Tuesday. Today we’ll look at toy stores in New York that are struggling to cope with President Trump’s tariffs. We’ll also look at why New York City is slow to pay nonprofit organizations that it hires to provide social services.

And, later today our new limited-run newsletter about the race for mayor will come your way. Our politics team will bring you news and observations, as the campaigning shifts into high gear for the 11 Democrats running in next month’s primary.

Credit…Amir Hamja for The New York Times

Last week President Trump acknowledged that his trade war with China might bring disappointment at Christmastime. “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know?” Trump said. “And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”

Jennifer Bergman, who owns the venerable toy store West Side Kids in Manhattan, worries that she won’t have dolls to sell.

She said that some toy companies are already marking up prices 10 to 20 percent. Others are delaying shipments, apparently betting that Trump’s 145 percent tariffs will be rolled back. And, as my colleague Daisuke Wakabayashi reported, holiday orders are also being frozen amid predictions of shortages.